宋圭武：发展中人口大国要谨慎推进城市化

城市化能否解决三农问题，需要具体情况具体分析。对于人口小国，比较可行。因为农村人口不多，城市吸收农村人口压力不大。对于工业发达国家，也比较可行。因为工业发达，城市有产业支撑，能较多吸收农村人口就业，这不会导致“城市病”。同时，由于工业发达，工业可以反哺农业和支援农业，也不会导致“农村病”。

但对于发展中人口大国，要完全依靠城市化吸收农村人口，并最终解决三农问题，有很大困难。从城市方面看，一是农村人口基数大，城市要完全吸收压力必然很大；二是由于城市自身产业基础也薄弱，在这种情况下，城市人口自身就业压力必然也大；三是随着技术的不断进步，一些简单劳动正越来越多被机器人所替代，这更增加了农村人进城就业的难度。从农村方面看，由于农业产业本身就效益低下，再加上市场信息不对称等，在城市繁华的诱惑下，这会导致农村优势要素包括劳动力要素、资金要素等会过多盲目流入城市。其最终结果有可能导致“农村病”与“城市病”并存。一方面，必然是城市人口过于拥挤，城市出现贫民窟；另一方面，又是农村的“空壳化”和土地的撂荒。而“城市病”与“农村病”并发，将导致整个国民经济陷入恶性循环状态。

在“城市病”与“农村病”并发情况下，若城市失业问题进一步加剧，而转移到城市的农民又回不到农村，同时，城市居民生活成本又不断增加，尤其吃住成本大幅度上升，尤其若食品价格大幅上升，则整个城市会面临极大骚乱风险，这会严重威胁一个国家的政治安全，需要中央高度重视。

另外，还需要注意的一点是，依靠房地产扩张所带动的城市化，对解决三农问题只具有短期效应，不具有长期效应。而且后期一旦房地产过度膨胀崩盘，必然会大面积引发产业衰退，城市失业率必然大面积上升，而失地农民又回不到农村，这必然会大概率提升城市骚乱风险，并进而威胁国家政治安全。

这里还要注意的一个问题是，认为只要户口变成城里人，就城市化了，就一切问题解决了，这也是误区。若城市很多人缺乏有效就业，城市化实是伪城市化。

另外，也不能产生城市化崇拜，即认为城市化什么都是好的，认为城市各方面都要高于农村，这也是一种认识上的误区。

还有，在衡量国家现代化水平上，城市化应是一个次要考虑因素，关键应考虑国家产业竞争力和居民生活质量，以及国家治理水平还有文化等方面。

另外，对于发展中人口大国，在城市化过程中，由于体制机制不健全等因素，可能还会产生严重的官员寻租问题。

所以，发展中人口大国，稳妥推进城市化是一种优化选择，急躁快速弊多利少，要稳中求进。

具体从城市化指标看，本人认为，对于少数发达国家，尤其是有雄厚工业支撑的国家，城市化水平可以超过85%以上，但对于发展中人口大国，若城市化水平超过50%，就需要谨慎推进城市化，应根据产业发展和就业需要逐步推进。

另外，对于发展中人口大国，在推进城市化的过程中，还要特别注意城市布局的均衡问题。如何均衡，本人认为，对于发展中人口大国，城市化应突出两级发展。一是要突出特大城市或城市群这一级的发展，这主要是考虑到提升国家核心竞争力的需要。二是要突出小城镇这一级的发展，这是考虑到带动农民、农村、农业发展的需要，这一级关乎社会稳定和粮食安全大事。同时，两级还要形成协调发展局面。特大城市或城市群要大而强，尤其要强，小城镇要专、精、特。

作者：甘肃省委党校教授

Song Guiwu Countries with Large Populations in Developing Countries Must Promote Urbanization Carefully

The topic I want to talk about today is that countries with large populations in developing countries must promote urbanization carefully.Whether urbanization can solve the problems of agriculture, rural areas and farmers needs to be analyzed on a case-by-case basis.For countries with small populations, it is feasible.Because the rural population is not large, the pressure on cities to absorb rural population is not very great.For countries with developed industries, it is also feasible.Because of developed industries, cities have industrial support, and can absorb more rural population for employment, which will not lead to "urban disease".At the same time, because of developed industries, industries can feed and support agriculture, which will not lead to "rural disease".But for countries with large populations in developing countries, it is very difficult to fully rely on urbanization to absorb rural population and finally solve the problems of agriculture, rural areas and farmers.From the perspective of cities, first, the rural population base is large, and the pressure on cities to absorb it completely is inevitable;second, because the industrial base of cities is also weak, the employment pressure of urban population is also inevitable;third, with the continuous progress of technology, some simple labor is increasingly replaced by robots, which increases the difficulty for rural people to find employment in cities. From the rural aspect, due to the low efficiency of the agricultural industry itself, coupled with market information asymmetry, under the lure of the city's prosperity, this will lead to the rural advantage factors, including labor factors, capital factors and so on will flow into the city too much blindly.The final result may lead to the coexistence of "rural disease" and "urban disease".On the one hand, the urban population is necessarily too crowded, and there are slums in the city;on the other hand, it is the "empty shell" of the countryside and the abandonment of the land.And the coexistence of "urban disease" and "rural disease" will lead to the entire national economy into a vicious cycle. In the case of the coexistence of "urban disease" and "rural disease", if the urban unemployment problem is further aggravated, and the farmers who have transferred to the city cannot return to the countryside, at the same time, the cost of living of urban residents is increasing, especially the cost of eating and housing is rising sharply, especially if the food price rises sharply, the whole city will face great risk of riots, which will seriously threaten the political security of a country, which needs the central government to pay great attention to. In addition, it is also worth noting that the urbanization driven by the expansion of real estate has only a short-term effect on the solution of the problems of agriculture, rural areas and farmers, but not a long-term effect. And later once the real estate over expansion collapse, will inevitably lead to a large area of industrial recession, urban unemployment rate will rise in a large area, and the landless farmers can not return to the countryside, which will inevitably increase the risk of urban riots, and then threaten national political security. Here is a problem to note is that as long as the household registration becomes a city person, it is urbanized, and all the problems are solved, which is also a misunderstanding.If many people in the city lack effective employment, urbanization is a pseudo urbanization. In addition, it can not produce urbanization worship, that is, what is good urbanization, that the city is higher than the country in all aspects, which is also a misunderstanding. Also, in the measure of the level of national modernization, urbanization should be a secondary consideration, the key should be considered in the national industrial competitiveness and quality of life of residents, as well as the level of national governance and culture. In addition, for the developing country with a large population, in the process of urbanization, due to the imperfect system and mechanism and other factors, there may be serious problems of official rent-seeking. Therefore, for the developing country with a large population, it is an optimal choice to steadily promote urbanization, and impatience and rapidity have more disadvantages than benefits, and we should seek progress in stability. In terms of the indicators of urbanization, I believe that for a small number of developed countries, especially those with strong industrial support, the urbanization level can exceed 85% or more. But for large developing countries with a large population, if the urbanization level exceeds 50%, it is necessary to carry out urbanization cautiously and gradually according to the needs of industrial development and employment. In addition, for large developing countries with a large population, in the process of promoting urbanization, special attention should be paid to the balance of urban layout.How to balance? I believe that for large developing countries with a large population, urbanization should highlight the two-level development.First, the development of megacities or urban agglomerations should be highlighted, which is mainly taken into account the need to enhance the national core competitiveness.Second, the development of small towns should be highlighted, which is taken into account the need to drive the development of farmers, rural areas and agriculture, which is related to social stability and food security.At the same time, the two levels should be coordinated.Megacities or urban agglomerations should be large and strong, especially strong, and small towns should be specialized, refined and special.