宋圭武观点94：城市化水平提高应与稳定就业率高度挂钩

城市化水平提高应与稳定就业率高度挂钩。产业扩张是城市扩张的基础。但产业扩张能否真正提高城市化水平，就业率是重要变量。若产业扩张不能带动就业增加，这样的产业扩张是无法真正提高城市化水平的。因为没有就业，城市必然无法容纳更多人口。在没有就业的情况下，城市人口的增加只能是贫困人口的增加。当城市贫困人口增加到一定程度，城市治安必成大问题，城市管理费用必然大增，最终也必将影响到城市产业健康发展，最终城市经济社会发展必然萎缩，城市化走向自我否定。

随着技术进步的加速，产业扩张带动就业增加的速度也在变慢。如无人工厂、无人超市、无人面馆等，几乎雇人很少。所以，技术进步客观排挤人口就业，这会阻挡城市人口增加的速度。

国家在推进城市化的过程中，一定要经常调查城市人口的就业情况，应根据就业水平提高情况不断提高城市化水平。不然，盲目扩张城市，社会风险极大。现代社会，城市是核心要素的聚集地。城市安全是国家安全和政治安全的关键。

一个人有恒产，才有恒心。这里恒产，关键是稳定就业。也就是说不仅要有就业，而且要有稳定就业，这样人心才有长久的稳定。如此，推进城市发展，提高城市化水平，不仅要考虑就业问题，更要考虑稳定就业问题。也就是说，城市化水平能否提高一定要与这个城市的稳定就业率高度挂钩。

发展中人口大国，农村人口多，在信息不对称和市场机制不完善的情况下，有可能产生大量农村人口涌入城市的情况。在没有稳定就业的情况下，城市不稳定风险会大大增加。所以，发展中人口大国更要把城市化水平提高和稳定就业高度关联起来，应立足稳定就业逐步推进城市化。否则，城市得病，农村也得病。城市病，是人口拥挤产生大量贫民窟；农村病，是土地撂荒和空壳化。同时，国家粮食安全也无法得到有效保障。最终，这种状况成为国家发展的陷阱，难以自拔。一些发展中国家陷入中等收入陷阱，发展长期徘徊，也与此有极大关系。

总之，国家推进城市化，一定要高度重视稳定就业问题。稳定就业是推进城市稳定发展最重要的基础，城市化水平提高一定要与稳定就业率高度挂钩，其他变量则为次要考虑因素。其中靠房地产扩张推进的城市化，更是高风险，而且越往后，风险越大，需要高度警惕和防范。

好，谢谢，谢谢。

Song Guiwu's Viewpoint 94: The improvement of urbanization level should be highly linked with the stable employment rate

The improvement of urbanization level should be highly linked with the stable employment rate.Industrial expansion is the basis of urban expansion.But whether industrial expansion can really improve the level of urbanization, employment rate is an important variable.If industrial expansion can not lead to the increase of employment, such industrial expansion can not really improve the level of urbanization.Because there is no employment, the city is bound to be unable to accommodate more people.In the absence of employment, the increase of urban population can only be the increase of the poor population.When the urban poor population increases to a certain extent, the city will become a big problem, the city management costs will inevitably increase, and finally will affect the healthy development of urban industry, and finally the urban economic and social development will inevitably shrink, and urbanization will go towards self-denial. With the acceleration of technological progress, the speed of employment increase driven by industrial expansion is slowing down.Such as unmanned factories, unmanned supermarkets, unmanned noodle shops, etc., almost hire very few people.Therefore, technological progress objectively crowds out employment, which will block the speed of urban population increase.In the process of promoting urbanization, the state must often investigate the employment situation of urban population, and should continuously improve the level of urbanization according to the improvement of employment level.Otherwise, the blind expansion of the city is a great social risk. In modern society, cities are the gathering place of core elements.City security is the key to national security and political security.A person has perseverance only when he has constant production.Here, the key to constant production is stable employment.That is to say, not only employment, but also stable employment, so that people's minds will be stable for a long time.So, to promote urban development and improve the level of urbanization, not only to consider the problem of employment, but also to consider the problem of stable employment.That is to say, whether the level of urbanization can be improved must be highly linked with the stable employment rate of the city.In a large developing country with a large rural population, under the condition of information asymmetry and imperfect market mechanism, it is possible to have a large number of rural people pouring into cities.In the absence of stable employment, the risk of urban instability will greatly increase.Therefore, in a large developing country with a large population, it is more important to enhance the level of urbanization and stable employment, and should gradually promote urbanization based on stable employment.Otherwise, the city will suffer, and the countryside will also suffer.The urban disease is the overcrowded population that produces a large number of slums;the rural disease is the abandoned land and empty shell.At the same time, the national food security cannot be effectively guaranteed.Finally, this situation becomes a trap for national development, which is difficult to extricate themselves from. Some developing countries have fallen into the middle-income trap and their development has been lingering for a long time, which is also closely related to this. In short, the country must attach great importance to stable employment in promoting urbanization.Stable employment is the most important foundation for promoting stable urban development, and the improvement of urbanization level must be highly linked to stable employment rate, while other variables are secondary considerations.The urbanization promoted by real estate expansion is highly risky, and the risks become greater the later, which requires high vigilance and prevention. OK, thank you, thank you.